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African Union Peace and Security Council

25 August 2009

Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly's Address to the African Union Peace and Security Council

Thank you for inviting me to speak to the PSC, and for scheduling today's meeting on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The meeting is timely given the challenges ahead in CPA implementation and the need for sustained international engagement if they are to be addressed successfully.

It is nine months since I last spoke here. Since then the Assessment and Evaluation Commission has continued to pursue the monitoring and support role with which it is entrusted in the CPA. We have met regularly to consider developments and encourage forward movement; undertaken field visits to assess the situation on the ground; and sought to help other CPA commissions, including the National Elections Commission. Earlier this summer AEC working groups reviewed progress on the priority recommendations in the Mid Term Evaluation agreed by the Commission in July 2008. In my remarks this morning I will seek to give an overview of the current position and the risks and challenges ahead, drawing on those and other discussions and on my own impressions. Before doing so I would like to take this opportunity to thank you, and through you the African Union delegation in Sudan, for their insightful and constructive contribution to the AEC's work throughout this period.

The backdrop to CPA implementation over the period has not been easy. Other issues diverted attention. The fall in the price of oil impacted Sudan hard. The Government of South Sudan suffered a particularly sharp - 50% - fall in revenue. Communal violence in parts of the South placed another heavy responsibility on the Government of South Sudan, as well as posing a new challenge to UNMIS.

It bears restating nevertheless that the CPA has continued to hold. Peace has been preserved. With the exception of a serious incident in Malakal in February, the ceasefire has held. The institutions of government established in accordance with the CPA have been sustained. And, although differences remain over transparency and the management of foreign currency reserves, the wealth sharing arrangements have continued to work.

The CPA is not however a static arrangement. It provides for a six year interim period in which specific steps should be taken and goals pursued. The end of the interim period is now less then two years away. Only seventeen months remain to the referenda in the South and Abyei, and little more than seven months to the date set by the National Elections Commission for the elections for executive and legislative office at national, Southern and state levels provided for in the CPA.

Much remains to be done, and the tightening timeline means that the pace of implementation must increase sharply. It is true that earlier stages of the interim period have seen repeated postponements and deadlines missed but somehow people have muddled through. That is no longer an option. The terminal dates in 2011, most specifically that of the referendum in the South, are set firmly in the Agreement and all remaining timelines have to be seen in that context.

That is the backdrop. Against it progress over the past few months has been at best patchy. Mistrust between the parties has persisted - and arguably deepened as unavoidable decisions approach. Some CPA provisions which one might have thought central to the goal of making unity attractive - such as the work of the National Civil Service Commission or the programme of national reconciliation and healing promised in the CPA - continue to be neglected or unimplemented. The Joint Integrated Units remain unintegrated in practise, and continue to receive too little by way of attention or support - a factor which contributed to the fighting in Malakal.

This is not to say that there have not been significant positive developments. I would like to pick out three in particular.

Firstly, in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile there have been major improvements in relations between the parties; in integration; and in redeployment. The two states have seen the successful roll out of the first stages of the major programme of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration envisaged in the CPA. It would be wrong to suggest that insecurity has been overcome in Southern Kordofan - only this week the AEC was again advised to defer a visit to part of the state on security grounds. And decisions have still to be taken with regard to the process of popular consultation promised to the people of the two states in the CPA. But the positive movement noted when I was last here has accelerated in these two states. It deserves to be acknowledged, and backed by generous support from central government - and crucially from donors.

The second area of significant progress relates to Abyei. The parties' acceptance as final and binding of the award made by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in July has laid to rest one of the most intractable problems encountered in CPA implementation, that of the Abyei boundary. The parties deserve to be congratulated on the peaceful resolution of this dispute and on the joint messages they have delivered to the communities directly concerned. But it is important that they move now on the other steps to which they are committed: demarcation of the boundary on the ground; funding the Abyei administration (when the AEC was in Abyei last month, failure to pay salaries was a particular complaint, and reconstruction and returns depend in significant part on the availability of funds to the administration); and, most importantly, reaching agreement on arrangements for the Abyei referendum in line with the Abyei Protocol.

The third positive development I would like to highlight is the engagement of the United States and the outputs it has fostered - the CPA Supporters Forum in Washington on 23 June and the Points of Agreement between the parties initialled in Juba on 19 August. All credit is due to Gen. Scott Gration for the energy and leadership he has shown, both in mobilising the international community and in helping the parties to come together to re-invigorate the peace process.

The AEC can help monitor progress on the Washington conclusions and the Points of Agreement and support their implementation. Many of the deadlines in the latter are tight. One or two have already passed. But the sense of the last AEC plenary, at the beginning of July, was that it is not for us to counsel caution if the parties are prepared to be bold. What is needed now is precisely a sense of urgency across all of the interlocking elements of the CPA. The international community should seek to sustain it, and encourage the parties to follow through – and offer support when they do.

There is one issue covered in the Points of Agreement, to which I would like to draw specific attention, and that relates to demarcation of the North/South border. In the Mid Term Evaluation last year the AEC noted that this was three years overdue and called for work on it to be completed as soon as possible: further delay would only prolong uncertainty and tension in border areas. In May the AEC agreed a letter to the Presidency, following briefing by the ad hoc committee charged with demarcation, expressing concern that the committee was deadlocked. The Presidency had by then agreed a new deadline for completion of the committee's work, 30 September, and this is I believe confirmed in the Points of Agreement. Given the limited progress achieved in committee over the past four years, and the inevitable impact of further delay on CPA implementation across a wide range of issues - from redeployment to elections to wealth sharing to preparations for the referendum - it is surely now imperative that this new deadline be met, and that the parties move forward immediately thereafter to facilitated resolution in a new format of any remaining disputes along the border.

The priority recommendations in the Mid Term Evaluation covered five areas which the AEC considered crucial for the sustainability of the CPA and achievement of the objectives of the Agreement. I have touched on three of these - Abyei; security, most specifically in relation to the Joint Integrated Units and DDR; and border demarcation. Managing them successfully is essential if the CPA is to be kept on track and a return to violence avoided. Getting the remaining two - preparations for elections and for 2011 - right will determine the future of Sudan.

On both much remains to be done. In the case of elections the National Elections Commission is endeavouring to move forward as required in its mandate. But the timetable is tight and no longer contains any slack given that April - the date now set for the elections - is just before the rainy season when voting in parts of the country would not be feasible. Major operations including voter education have yet to get underway. More needs to be done, including revision of the National Security Law, to create a free and fair environment. The international community needs to be clear and forthcoming about its support, both politically and in terms of funding, and in the South in particular, of logistics. Last - but very certainly not least - the parties need to resolve their difference over the census so as to remove a continuing and very serious threat to the integrity of the process.

I raise these questions not to cast doubt on elections, but rather to encourage you to encourage the parties and the UN and the donor community to redouble their efforts to ensure that elections take place successfully on the date set by the NEC. None of the difficulties outlined is insuperable, given the necessary political will. Elections are an important element in the CPA, and central to the political transformation it envisages. Free and fair ones still offer the best prospect of making unity attractive. The opportunity they provide should be seized - but it will require a major, concerted effort in the coming weeks, and flexibility and commitment from all concerned.

The final priority area to which I would like to draw attention is the need to press ahead with preparations for 2011. The CPA envisaged passage in the third year of the interim period of legislation on modalities for the referendum which will enable the people of Southern Sudan to exercise their right of self determination. That right, and the referendum itself, lies at the heart of the CPA. The bill will among other things establish the referendum commission: the practical need to complete work on that without further delay is illustrated by the eight months it took for the National Elections Commission to get up and running after passage of the electoral law.

The parties are now engaged in direct discussion of the referendum bill, which is welcome. But my sense is that positions have if anything hardened, and agreement remains elusive. This is not the context in which to go into specifics. But clearly the law needs to be consistent with the CPA, and to provide for a referendum which will satisfy the people of the South that their right to self determination is freely and fairly exercised. Anything else will only store up trouble for the future.

The other aspect of this to which I would like to draw attention is the need to prepare separately and in good time for the outcome of the referendum, whatever it might be. We should strive, as enjoined in the CPA, to make unity attractive. But anybody who has had the opportunity to engage with Southern opinion will know that the possibility of secession is real. The ground needs to be prepared for both possible outcomes, and understandings reached. Both parties are I know looking at this. Before long they will need to do so together. The Mid Term Evaluation suggested that, when they do, they should approach the important economic, political and human issues involved in a spirit which reflects the fundamental interdependence of North and South, and the need for both to continue to work together peacefully whatever the outcome of the referendum. This would still seem as good a starting point as any.

In conclusion, I would like to return if I may to the role of the international community in support of the CPA. I was appointed to my present position in February last year. I felt quite acutely during my first months in the job that international attention – even when turned to Sudan – was elsewhere. That can no longer be the case. The challenges remaining in CPA implementation in 2010 and 2011 are immense. The potential prize in terms of lasting peace and development is huge. But getting there will require a renewed spirit of partnership between the parties, and continued intensive engagement and support from the international community. The Washington Forum and the US-led process have hopefully opened a new chapter. But this level of engagement and more is going to be needed for the remainder of the interim period – and beyond. The African Union’s voice and counsel will carry particular weight, and it is vital that it be heard in encouraging the parties to work together to complete the task of CPA implementation on which they embarked more than four years ago.

End of speech